risk-management 10

When AI does the entry-level work, what you should learn depends on what it costs to be wrong. AI is replacing entry-level roles, especially technical ones. In the US, Stanford found that since late 2022, employment in AI-exposed jobs like software and customer support fell 16% relatively for 22-25 year-olds. Employment for older workers in the same jobs stayed steady. Matt Beane at UCSB saw this happen in robotic surgery even before AI. Surgeons used to train the next batch of residents. But robotic consoles let surgeons do what residents did earlier, so they stopped bothering with residents. ...

This week, I learned: Luma Labs Dream Machine generated videos. It’s free and is of reasonable quality. Update: 6 Jun 2025. Costs $10/month LLM DataHub has LLM training datasets, regularly updated From Dan Becker on running a workshop Answer questions at the end, not in parallel in a chat, to avoid distraction Have fewer words in slides when presenting. It’s less distracting Morgan Housel Shane Parrish podcast Risk is what stops you from achieving YOUR goals. What’s risky for me may not be risky for you The lesson from compounding is that you want to optimize for duration, not return. That’s what does the heavy lifting. Survival, consistency, long term - these matter. The performance does NOT matter.

A quote from David Heinemeier Hansson: So the problem is, a lot of business managers and especially business owners, they have no sense of probability. They can’t fathom that concept. So They treat the probability of 1 to 10 trillion as the same as a 1 to a 100. And like, “We’ve got to deal with this 1 to a trillion probability, because, what if it happens?” No! Doesn’t matter! I mean, don’t care. ...

Why Linux does not need defragmenting (via Google Operating System’s article on fast disk defragmenters.)

I was working with the treasury of a bank. They were trying to estimate how much money could flow out of their savings account in a day, worst case. I took their total savings account balance at the end of each day and found the standard deviation. I took thrice the standard deviation, and said, “You can be 99.7% sure that your daily loss won’t be more than 1.5% of the balance.” ...

Folder Size lets you see the size of folders in Windows Explorer.

CIBIL – Credit Information Bureau of India Ltd gets going.

The Doomsday clock has been advanced by 2 minutes. It now reads 7 minutes from midnight. That’s the level is was during the cold war.

“Studies have shown that…” idiosyncratic risk in stocks is higher. So, have 30 stocks in your portfolio.

Prof. Apte mentioned that the currency forward is not an unbiased estimator of the future spot rate, but is the certainty equivalent of it. The Kelly FAQ gives a good description of what certainty equivalence means.