I explore why currency forwards are not unbiased estimators of future spot rates but function instead as certainty equivalents. This distinction clarifies risk-adjusted forward pricing and connects financial valuation concepts to the Kelly criterion principles.
Prof. Apte mentioned that the currency forward is not an unbiased estimator of the future spot rate, but is the certainty equivalent of it. The Kelly FAQ gives a good description of what certainty equivalence means.
I'm joining Anil Dash in expressing my dislike for email forwards. These chain letters and recycled jokes were a constant annoyance in 2001, and I completely agree that they need to stop cluttering our inboxes.
Explore how economists can improve exchange rate models by adopting the perspectives of currency traders, specifically focusing on market microstructure and the significance of order flows over traditional macro fundamentals to explain market behavior.
Vibe coding is best treated as a speed-first tactic for prototypes and low-certainty tasks, with deliberate model switching, cross-checking, and sandboxing to manage its risks.
I explore a discussion on how inflation changed currency's role. While money once stored value and measured wealth, its constant fluctuations mean it now serves primarily as a medium for exchanging goods and services.
I recommend Kevin Kelly's Cool Tools blog, where he curates reviews of practical hardware and software. It is an excellent resource for discovering functional, high-quality items that solve specific problems and work as advertised.