Karthik Sashidhar shared his AI-generated Bangalore weather blog, which is generated by Hermes listening on Telegram. “The data analysis and stuff is still fairly YOLO but … skill based on my 10 years of experience,” as he put it. That includes critique too.
Arjun asked it: Does it rain at specific hours in the day during monsoons?
In a few minutes, Pre-monsoon rain is an evening creature emerged. In short, it rains in the evenings: 5 - 6 pm is the peak.
That got me curious: how reliable is this advice? I mean, if someone told me, “Carry an umbrella if you’re going out between 3-7pm”, does that advice change month-on-month? How likely am I to get wet despite following it?
It turns out that based on 10 years of Open-Meteo data, the answer does change a bit based on the season. In July, when it rains the most, 1 - 7 pm is when you should carry an umbrella. There’s a 43% risk of rain in this window, but only 18% outside it.
But the city with the clearest advice is Caracas, Venezuala. In August (or almost any month), carry an umbrella between 12 - 6 pm. There’s a 57% chance it’ll rain then - and only 6% outside.
Or Abidjan, Ivory Coast. In October, carry an umbrella between 11 am - 5 pm. 72% chance of rain, 15% outside.
Some cities, like Mumbai, India, are hopeless. In July, always carry an umbrella. 86% chance between 2 - 8 am (when it rains the most), and 80% outside.
In some, like Taichung, Taiwan, it depends. Summer rain is predictable. In winter, it might rain at any time.
The opposite is true for Surabaya, Indonesia and Sao Paulo, Brazil.
My father often complains about the peculiar weather in Chennai, India. It doesn’t rain too much, but in the rainy seasons. there’s no fixed schedule.
Maybe that’s part of what makes rain forecasts accurate in some cities - just knowing the season is enough to predict rain timings.