scenario-planning 4

GDPval is a benchmark that compares how well AI does (vs experts without AI) on useful real-world tasks. In several areas, the agents outperform experts. For example, AI beats personal financial advisors, but not accountants and auditors. So I used ChatGPT / Claude to decide where to invest, but am having an accountant file my taxes. That’s a high leverage activity, especially since I might not have hired a personal financial advisor by default, and ChatGPT is certainly better than me (I’m not an expert) at personal financial advice. ...

The Economist on Business Continuity Planning. The effect on Ericsson, a Swedish mobile-phone company, of a fire in a New Mexico chipmaking plant belonging to the Dutch firm Philips, has become a legend. The fire, in March 2000, started by a bolt of lightning, lasted less than 10 minutes, but it caused havoc to the super-clean environment that chipmaking requires. Ericsson, unable to find an alternative source of supply, went on to report a loss of over $2 billion in its mobile-phone division that year, a loss that left it as an also-ran in an industry where it had once been a leader. ...

I was traveling from VT to Ullas Nagar to buy furniture. Since it’s an hour-and-half, I had taken a printout of an article on Scenario Planning to read. Being the gripping reading that it was, I’d fallen asleep on page 4, when I feel a gentle tap on my shoulder. “Excuse me, are you reading this?” Since I was asleep, I clearly wasn’t. But I looked at him, just to make sure he hadn’t mistaken it for a newspaper or something. He had a moustache, was wearing a blue shirt, and didn’t looked like the type who could mistake Scenario Planning with the latest political gossip. ...

Resources for scenario planning.