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    <title>scenario-planning on S Anand</title>
    <link>https://www.s-anand.net/blog/tag/scenario-planning/</link>
    <description>Recent content in scenario-planning on S Anand</description>
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    <lastBuildDate>Tue, 06 Jan 2026 17:26:39 +0800</lastBuildDate>
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    <item>
      <title>AI agents to hire</title>
      <link>https://www.s-anand.net/blog/ai-agents-to-hire/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 06 Jan 2026 17:26:39 +0800</pubDate>
      <guid>https://www.s-anand.net/blog/ai-agents-to-hire/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://sanand0.github.io/datastories/gdpval/&#34;&gt;GDPval&lt;/a&gt; is a benchmark that compares how well AI does (vs experts without AI) on useful real-world tasks.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In several areas, the &lt;em&gt;agents outperform experts&lt;/em&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For example, AI beats personal financial advisors, but not accountants and auditors. So I used ChatGPT / Claude to decide where to invest, but am having an accountant file my taxes. That&amp;rsquo;s a high leverage activity, especially since I might not have hired a personal financial advisor by default, and ChatGPT is certainly better than me (I&amp;rsquo;m not an expert) at personal financial advice.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Financial management is just one aspect of life. There are several. I don&amp;rsquo;t hire professionals in many areas where I&amp;rsquo;m not an expert, so hiring AI agents here is almost a no-brainer.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;ul&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Doctor: Symptom triage, report analysis, drug check, health planning.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Financial advisor: Budgeting, investing, tax saving.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Lawyer: Contract review (rental, employment, &amp;hellip;), disputes (claims, employment, property), planning (will, power of attorney), legal compliance.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Real-estate broker: Property search, lease negotiation, regulatory compliance.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Editor: Presentations, documents, emails, code.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Investigator: Client, vendor, partner, competitor, consultant, product.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Teacher: Skill development, test prep, concept learning, project guidance.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Counselor: Mental health, relationship, career, life coaching.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;p&gt;But these are the more obvious ones. I had &lt;a href=&#34;https://claude.ai/share/d32e5416-f603-46f3-8a29-e2938b05c607&#34;&gt;Claude list what AI agents can be &amp;ldquo;hired&amp;rdquo;&lt;/a&gt; of some of the less obvious but high-leverage &amp;ldquo;hires&amp;rdquo; and what I could ask them:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;ul&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Philosopher.
&lt;ul&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Why does this feel uncomfortable?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;What do these choices reveal about my implicit values?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;AI may cut jobs but also improve lives. Help me resolve this.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Play devil&amp;rsquo;s advocate from three ethical frameworks.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Historian.
&lt;ul&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Generate structured questions to ask parents/elders.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Here&amp;rsquo;s a transcript. Extract themes and suggest follow-up questions.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Connect this family story to its broader historical context.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Turn these fragmented stories into a coherent narrative.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Relationship architect.
&lt;ul&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Brief me on my history with this person before I meet them.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;I haven&amp;rsquo;t contacted X in months. Draft a warm reconnection message.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Who in my network could help me reach [goal]? What&amp;rsquo;s the warmest path?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;What patterns do you notice in the relationships I find energizing?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Scenario planner.
&lt;ul&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Create three 2030 scenarios for [domain]. Stress-test my current strategy against each.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;What robust moves work across all scenarios?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;What early warning indicators should I watch for?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;I&amp;rsquo;m choosing between X and Y. What would I need to believe for each to be correct?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Epistemologist.
&lt;ul&gt;
&lt;li&gt;What are my load-bearing beliefs? Which haven&amp;rsquo;t I stress-tested recently?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Steelman the strongest case against my view on [topic].&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Here&amp;rsquo;s a prediction I made. Track it. What&amp;rsquo;s my calibration like?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Where might I have galaxy-brained myself into an unusual position?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Diplomat.
&lt;ul&gt;
&lt;li&gt;I&amp;rsquo;m meeting [context]. What unwritten expectations might I miss?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Review this email. Am I being appropriately [direct/indirect] for this culture?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;What mistakes do Indians typically make in [context]?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;The meeting felt off. Here&amp;rsquo;s what happened. What did I miss?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Taste curator.
&lt;ul&gt;
&lt;li&gt;I liked [X, Y, Z] but not [A, B]. What does this reveal about my aesthetic?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;What&amp;rsquo;s adjacent to my current taste that would stretch me without losing me?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;I want to develop taste in [domain]. What&amp;rsquo;s the learning path? What do I experience first?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;My taste feels derivative. What would make it more authentically mine?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Recommend [books/films/music] that would give me vocabulary for [aesthetic/emotion/idea].&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;I&amp;rsquo;m designing [space/event/gift]. What references should I draw from given my taste?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;My taste in [domain] is developed. My taste in [other domain] is naive. Bridge them.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Rhetorician.
&lt;ul&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Analyze this transcript. What&amp;rsquo;s my default argumentation style? Its blind spots?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;I need to convince [skeptical audience] of X. What&amp;rsquo;s the optimal structure?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Help me turn this observation into a memorable, quotable framework.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Steelman their likely objections and give me responses.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Archivist.
&lt;ul&gt;
&lt;li&gt;What have I previously thought about [topic]?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;This new idea connects to something—find the link in my past work.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;I&amp;rsquo;ve written about X and Z separately. Synthesize them.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;What gaps exist in my thinking on [domain]?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Liturgist.
&lt;ul&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Design a family ritual for [transition] that fits our values.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Create a weekly reflection practice for our family.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;We lost [person]. Design a remembrance practice that feels genuine.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;I want to mark [milestone] meaningfully, not performatively. How?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Activist.
&lt;ul&gt;
&lt;li&gt;I care about [issue]. Map the power structure. Who actually decides?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;What&amp;rsquo;s the smallest intervention with the largest leverage on this system?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Who are unlikely allies? What would make opponents neutral?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;I have [resources/reach]. What&amp;rsquo;s my highest-impact move?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Craft a narrative frame that makes [change] feel inevitable, not radical.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;What&amp;rsquo;s the history of successful change in similar domains? What worked?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Intelligence agent.
&lt;ul&gt;
&lt;li&gt;What weak signals should I monitor for [risk/opportunity]?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Here&amp;rsquo;s what [competitor/market] did this quarter. What does it reveal about their strategy?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;What am I not seeing because of my position? Where are my blind spots?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;This seems like noise. Is there a pattern I&amp;rsquo;m missing?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Red team this: How could [scenario] hurt me? What would I not see coming?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Verify this claim. What would make it false? What&amp;rsquo;s the source quality?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Bodyguard.
&lt;ul&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Audit my digital footprint. What&amp;rsquo;s publicly available that shouldn&amp;rsquo;t be?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;I&amp;rsquo;m traveling to [place]. What&amp;rsquo;s the threat profile? What precautions matter?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Review this [email/message/request]. Is this social engineering?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;What&amp;rsquo;s my current weakest security link—physical, digital, financial?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Someone determined wants to harm me. What&amp;rsquo;s their easiest path? How do I close it?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Design a security protocol for [context: travel/home/data] that I&amp;rsquo;ll actually follow.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Lab assistant.
&lt;ul&gt;
&lt;li&gt;I want to test whether [intervention] affects [outcome]. Design an N=1 experiment.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Here&amp;rsquo;s two weeks of data. What&amp;rsquo;s the signal? What&amp;rsquo;s noise?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;I think X causes Y in my life. What confounders should I control for?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;This experiment failed. Was it the hypothesis or the method?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;What&amp;rsquo;s the minimum viable test before I commit to [major change]?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;I&amp;rsquo;ve tried [interventions]. Synthesize: what actually works for me?&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img alt=&#34;AI Advisory Cabinet&#34; loading=&#34;lazy&#34; src=&#34;https://files.s-anand.net/images/2026-01-06-ai-advisory-cabinet.webp&#34;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://www.linkedin.com/posts/sanand0_in-many-areas-%F0%9D%98%A2%F0%9D%98%A8%F0%9D%98%A6%F0%9D%98%AF%F0%9D%98%B5%F0%9D%98%B4-%F0%9D%98%B0%F0%9D%98%B6%F0%9D%98%B5%F0%9D%98%B1%F0%9D%98%A6%F0%9D%98%B3%F0%9D%98%A7%F0%9D%98%B0%F0%9D%98%B3%F0%9D%98%AE-activity-7414249386639126528-MerW&#34;&gt;LinkedIn&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Business continuity planning</title>
      <link>https://www.s-anand.net/blog/business-continuity-planning/</link>
      <pubDate>Fri, 28 Oct 2005 12:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://www.s-anand.net/blog/business-continuity-planning/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;The Economist on &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.economist.com/printedition/displayStory.cfm?story_id=5093490&#34;&gt;Business Continuity Planning&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The effect on Ericsson, a Swedish mobile-phone company, of a fire in a New Mexico chipmaking plant belonging to the Dutch firm Philips, has become a legend. The fire, in March 2000, started by a bolt of lightning, lasted less than 10 minutes, but it caused havoc to the super-clean environment that chipmaking requires. Ericsson, unable to find an alternative source of supply, went on to report a loss of over $2 billion in its mobile-phone division that year, a loss that left it as an also-ran in an industry where it had once been a leader.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
</description>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The 7-column blueprint</title>
      <link>https://www.s-anand.net/blog/the-7-column-blueprint/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 30 Apr 2002 12:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://www.s-anand.net/blog/the-7-column-blueprint/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;I was traveling from VT to Ullas Nagar to buy furniture. Since it&amp;rsquo;s an hour-and-half, I had taken a printout of an article on &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.idongroup.com/assoc/stratscen1.html&#34;&gt;Scenario Planning&lt;/a&gt; to read. Being the gripping reading that it was, I&amp;rsquo;d fallen asleep on page 4, when I feel a gentle tap on my shoulder.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;ldquo;Excuse me, are you reading this?&amp;rdquo;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Since I was asleep, I clearly wasn&amp;rsquo;t. But I looked at him, just to make sure he hadn&amp;rsquo;t mistaken it for a newspaper or something. He had a moustache, was wearing a blue shirt, and didn&amp;rsquo;t looked like the type who could mistake Scenario Planning with the latest political gossip.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;ldquo;Could I have a look?&amp;rdquo;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;He sure could. The article had made no sense to me so far. If it helped him, great! He started leafing through it.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;ldquo;Did you download it?&amp;rdquo;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I had. I nodded. Then I went back to sleep. After a few minutes, when I woke up to see what station had arrived, he started off again.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;ldquo;So are you studying this only now?&amp;rdquo; (His tone was like, &amp;ldquo;So, are you learning to read at THIS age?&amp;rdquo;)&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I said, &amp;ldquo;Yeah.&amp;rdquo;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;ldquo;Haven&amp;rsquo;t you taken any classes on strategy before?&amp;rdquo;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Now, how do I explain that I work for a strategy consulting firm? But then, that wasn&amp;rsquo;t his question was it? To be honest, I&amp;rsquo;ve taken only one class on strategy, and I&amp;rsquo;m not really sure I understand it, so I said &amp;ldquo;No.&amp;rdquo;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;ldquo;I work for BPL Mobile, you see,&amp;rdquo; he continued. &amp;ldquo;We had this class on strategy where they gave out this blueprint. You should read it.&amp;rdquo;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Well, if he&amp;rsquo;s from BPL Mobile, I have a few strong thoughts as a customer that I&amp;rsquo;d want to share with him. But then again&amp;hellip; maybe I&amp;rsquo;d learn something. I asked, &amp;ldquo;Blueprint? What&amp;rsquo;s that?&amp;rdquo;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;ldquo;Oh, it&amp;rsquo;s a sheet that has 7 columns. It tells you what all you have to do for a company&amp;rsquo;s strategy &amp;ndash; from deciding everyone&amp;rsquo;s designation to putting names in each of the boxes and so on. It&amp;rsquo;s really detailed. It has 7 columns. You should get it and read it.&amp;rdquo;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;ldquo;Oh, you mean a business plan!&amp;rdquo;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;ldquo;No, no, no. This has 7 columns. It&amp;rsquo;s a blueprint. You should read it.&amp;rdquo;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Of course. 7 columns. Should anyone spot a blueprint with 7 columns, do pass it to me. I should read it. In the meantime, I&amp;rsquo;ll stick to sleeping on trains.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Scenario planning</title>
      <link>https://www.s-anand.net/blog/scenario-planning/</link>
      <pubDate>Mon, 29 Apr 2002 12:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://www.s-anand.net/blog/scenario-planning/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Resources for &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.crt.se/~mb/scenario/&#34;&gt;scenario planning&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
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