mental-models 8

Custom instructions for all my ChatGPT conversations. Write in simple conversational language. Write eloquently, not in telegraphic fragments. Example: Not "Improve setup—choose right tool; run→test→fix" but "Improve the set up by choosing the right tool. Run the tool to test it. If it fails, fix the issues and repeat." Be creative and think out-of-box when exploring alternatives. Explore second order effects, inversion, systems thinking, and other mental models when evaluating. Stretch comfort zones. Challenge my assumptions. Point out blindspots and contrarian angles. Change log Custom Instructions to ChatGPT. ...

Distill core concepts from a topic. Version 2, 31 Mar 2026 I want to become quickly effective at [SPECIFIC TASK]. Give me the 7-12 most recurring real-life situations and how experts handle them. For each, include: 1. Trigger: "when I see ..." 2. Model: how experts see it (threshold concept, mental model, practical - not theory) 3. Traps: what it helps me avoid 4. Action: what to do/decide Use a real, concrete example for each. Then add two things: - Look-alikes: 2-3 pairs of similar situations that need opposite treatment, and how to distinguish them. - What comes only from experience - so I know the limits. Version 1 What are the core concepts, i.e. top non-intuitive well-established lessons/principles, of ... - Source comprehensively from authoritative sources. - Pick the 10 that are mentioned repeatedly, have the highest applicability and usefulness, while being non-obvious. - Fact-check each concept. Include references to authoritative sources. - Write them as bullet points. Explain each concept in a few simple sentences that are easy to understand intuitively.

Analyze call transcripts to extract key insights, action items, and feedback. Based on this transcript of my (Anand's) conversation, share in simple, ELI15 language: - **Persona**: List the people who matter most in the transcript and the roles they are playing; include beliefs they exhibit; list their assumptions that may not be valid; and add one sentence on how I should engage each of them differently in the next conversation. - **Insights**: List fact-checked, high-impact, practical & useful, surprising insights; include why each is counter-intuitive and how it changes my future behavior. If a candidate insight is obvious or was already fully articulated in the conversation, drop it. List and use effective mental models. - **Corrections**: Fact-check all statements; list all material corrections with details and sources, prioritizing those that would change future decisions or narratives. - **What I missed**: Identify the highest-leverage moments where I missed or under-reacted to a “bid” (request, concern, constraint, opportunity, or emotional signal) from others, reading between the lines, and considering what went unsaid. For each, include (a) the exact quote or a close paraphrase of what they said, (b) the follow-up question or move I _should_ have made in the moment, and (c) likely reasons I missed it (cognitive, bias, interaction, time pressure, etc.). - **What they missed**: Identify my statements (including reading between the lines and what went unsaid) that others missed or misread even by the end of the conversation. For each, include (a) what I said (quoted or closely paraphrased), (b) what I was _really_ trying to convey, (c) how they responded or failed to respond, and (d) how I could phrase or position it differently next time so it lands. - **Next steps**: List ONLY agreed-upon actions / next steps. If an implied next step is very important but was not explicitly agreed, include it and label it as “[implied]”. - **Try out**: Brainstorm experiments, prototypes, or habits the transcript inspires. From these, select the 3 highest-impact ones that (a) I can start within 2 hours of focused work and (b) have a clear, measurable outcome within 1–4 weeks, and (c) will be relevant and useful to me. Optimize for depth over breadth: prefer the most interesting, sharper points that would change how I act in future conversations. If a point is very powerful/impactful, mark it with ⭐. Align with my interests. Help me learn and expand my horizons. Fact-check against established science / ancient wisdom. Write as a Markdown list of lists with no headings: - **Persona**: - **[name of the person]**: their role in the conversation, beliefs they hold, assumptions that may be invalid, and how I should engage them differently next time - ... - **Insights**: - **[a succinct insight summary]**: why it's big, useful, and surprising, and how it should change my future behavior - ⭐ **[next succinct insight summary]**: begin with a star for the best bullets - ... - **Corrections**: - **[correction]**: original statement, what the error is, and who said it, with sources cited - ... - **What I missed**: - **[summary]**: details of what I missed and who said it, what I failed to do or ask, and why I likely missed it - ... - **What they missed**: - **[summary]**: what I said (quoted or paraphrased), what I intended, how they responded or failed to respond, and what I should change next time - ... - **Next steps**: - **[name of owner]**: action agreed on - ... - **Try out**: - **[what to try]**: what exactly this is and why it's high-impact, novel, and useful - ⭐ **[top item to try]**: begin with a star for the top 3 bullets ## Transcript

Evaluate a business idea in different ways, recommending a go/no-go decision and action plan. **Objective**: Evaluate the provided business idea as a means of achieving the provided goal. Recommend a go/no-go decision and, if applicable, a concrete action plan. **Instructions**: Follow these steps sequentially. Write one comprehensive section for each: 1. **Explore**: Analyze the current state & trends in the industry related to the goal and idea. 2. **Evaluate**: Assess the idea's strengths and weaknesses. List pros, cons, risks, impacts, and other important considerations. 3. **Perspectives**. Map priorities across sponsor/budget owner, end-users, procurement/finance, legal/compliance & InfoSec/IT, operations/delivery & QA, sales/account, data owners, and key partners. 4. **Mental models**. E.g. unit economics, segmentation, Theory-of-Constraints, service-blueprinting, outside-view, cost-of-delay, second order effects, power laws, switching-costs, compliance, learning-curves, inversion, etc. Run a pre-mortem. 5. **Recommendation**. Recommend a go/no-go with reasons. If it's a "go", then: 6. **Action plan**. Outline actionable business steps, factoring in learnings from perspectives & mental models. 7. **Role play**. Simulate best/base/worst and edge-case scenarios (procurement, InfoSec, capacity, SLA, quality). For each, set numeric success/kill thresholds, quantify assumptions with ranges, suggest owners & countermeasures. 8. **Final action plan**. Refine the implementation steps by incorporating insights and addressing issues identified during role play. After each substantative step, validate that results match the step's intent (e.g. action plan addresses all risks, learnings; final action plan addresses role play failure points); promptly self-correct if validation fails. <GOAL>...</GOAL> <IDEA>...</IDEA>

This week, I learned: Ways to expand mental models DISCOVER mental models. Review beliefs diary. DIVERSIFY. Find INFLUENTIAL (not dull) people with different backgrounds. Experiment! New environment, approach, perspective Be open. Change your mind. APPLY. Practice regularly Ways to use inversion “Pre-mortem” is an analysis at the beginning of how a project failed. Then avoid that “Red team” or “Black hat” are designated to contradict. Having a PoV IS a hypothesis. Always having a PoV allows us to detect anomalies and learn. Control vectors in real-time lets you control response in real-time OIDC is Open ID Connect. It’s like OAuth2 but more. Azure and Google support it. Planka is an open-source Trello There is a https://myapplications.microsoft.com/ that serves as a starting point. Might be helpful Instructor lets you create structured JSON output.

This week, I learned: You can use slots to stream HTML out of order! Shane Parrish. Short-term patience podcast have a frame of reference to relate EVERY experience to. That helps you evaluate (measure) and learn. That’s part of what Charlie Munger’s lattice of frameworks is about when there is a very high or very low interest scenario, low interest scenario then go ultra long term. Issued hundred years when the interest rate regime was very low short term optimal is rally long term optimal. So you need to learn to take a loss and look like an idiot to play the long-term game grit is a behavior that enables long-term thinking. Short term success gives you the luxury to think about long term #IMP power is about optionality. It’s about being in a position where you have the options that can affect the positive change rather than circumstances controlling you. Read Robert greene’s book on the 48 laws of Power low leverage enables that begin with the end in mind. Always how do you think about risk? Well, things do happen. It’s as simple as that autonomy and decentralization helps derisk do more and more of what works. That’s a powerful way of compounding long-term investments are better than frequent trading because you get to reinvest the tax you otherwise would have paid. So unless the alternative is super compelling, stay invested if you need to be the person who DOES the thing, you delegate less, leverage list, compound less, because you have to DO. BE A PERSON WHO SETS THE FIELD INSTEAD. The coach, the chess master, the director, patient strategist who Waits for the good hit Being in Control motivates #Lesson. my cycle tires were flat. I thought it was someone pulling out the air and felt very demotivated. But once I carried my cycle pump, I felt so much more in control and power and felt a whole lot better SourceGraph is the default platform for private code completion & search MetaVoice 1B offers voice cloning on American & British accents with 30s training Qwen 1.5 72B appears to outperform Mistral Medium, making it one of the top non-proprietary models Llava 1.6 is a substantial improvement over Llava 1.5 and slightly better than CogVLM, Qwen-VL AI scams are growing. Deepfakes scammed $34m. But voice fake for kidnapping is scarier. Buildspace’s demo is a great demo of how voice and actions can be used effectively. demucs does an EXCELLENT job of splitting songs into drums, bass, vocals and others

All teachers of programming find that their results display a ‘double hump’. It is as if there are two populations: those who can [program], and those who cannot [program], each with its own independent bell curve.

Think like a genius.