I highlight prediction markets like Hollywood Stock Exchange, Innovation Futures, and Blogshares. These platforms leverage the wisdom of crowds to generate remarkably accurate forecasts across entertainment, technology, and blogging domains.
I'm looking at how Google uses internal prediction markets to leverage the wisdom of crowds. By letting employees trade on project outcomes, they gather more accurate forecasts than traditional top-down management estimates.
I'm checking out Blogshares, a fantasy stock market for blogs where users trade with $500 of notional currency. It creates an artificial economy by allowing participants to buy and sell stakes in their favorite weblogs.
I explore Ideosphere, an intriguing virtual futures market where users trade coupons based on the validity of claims. It uses a score-based system to aggregate public opinion on ideas, similar to prediction markets for entertainment.
I examine Paul Graham's distinction between wisdom, which means being right frequently, and intelligence, which means being right where others aren't. I find that creativity increasingly demands intelligence over traditional wisdom for unique results.
This short teaser frames Hollywood not as easy for foreigners, but as one of the least closed major film ecosystems compared with other national industries.