Can ChatGPT give teachers data-driven heuristics on student grades?
I uploaded last term’s scores from about 1,700 students in my Tools in Data Science course and asked ChatGPT:
This sheet contains the scores of students … (and explained the columns).
I want to find out what are the best predictors of the total plus bonus… (and explained how scores are calculated).
I am looking for simple statements with 80%+ correctness along the lines of:
- “if ga1_f + ga_4f > x then you will not fail; this is true for 90% of the students” or
- “your total will effectively be your p1_f score, within plus or minus 5 marks; this is true for ~90% of the students” or
- “if you get below 40% in ga3_f then you will likely fail; 80% of the students who did so fail.”
Earlier predictors (GA1, GA2, maybe GA3) are more useful (to students) …
Two kinds of students: Those who want to avoid failing and those who want to score high….
.. give me the best student advice. Phrase it conversationally and include numerical evidence in simple language.
After a 30 minute conversation, ChatGPT delivered concrete, actionable advice:
One-page student playbook
If you’re behind / “don’t fail”:
- Immediate target: GA2 > 45 and GA3 > 55. That alone cuts fail risk to ~16%.
- If possible, push >85/85 to get fail to ~8%.
- Translation: stop skipping; get partial credit; move into the “safe” GA2/GA3 band.
If you’re aiming for an A:
- Path A1 (broad coverage): P2 + ET >= 180 > A ~ 35% (n=169).
- Path A2 (also broad): P1 + P2 >= 180 > A ~ 45% (n=161).
- If early GAs are fine (GA2/GA3 >=70), keep them steady, but your marginal effort should go to P2 and ET.
If you’re aiming for an S:
- Path S1 (most reliable): P2 >= 90 + ROE >= 80 > S ~ 77% (n=26).
- Path S2 (elite): P2 >= 90 + ET >= 85 + ROE >= 80 > S ~ 91% (n=11).
- Simple rule of thumb: P2 + ROE >= 170 or ET + ROE >= 160 > ~70% S with 0% fails in those groups.
- Translation: ace ROE. Use P2 and ET as the second and third pillars.
Students: Don’t study harder. Study what moves the marks. (Learning be damned!)
Teachers: Try this with your course data!
Full chat: https://chatgpt.com/share/68e7034a-7340-800c-b259-0bd51715ad11