Objective vs Subjective Probability

Determinism, Chaos and Quantum Mechanics [PDF]. Interesting 30-pager by Jean Bricmont. He begins by differentiating predictability from determinism, and proceeds to explain how chaos theory supports determinism by enhancing predictability.

As an interesting aside, Bricmont’s article points out that there are 2 kinds of probabilities. Objective probability is where I know that if I toss a fair coin enough times, it’ll turn up heads 50% of the time. Subjective probability is where I think there’s a 10% chance it’ll rain tomorrow, and I don’t care to repeat the event. The former is an informed statement about a system. The latter is our best guess about an event. The former number is a constant, if we’ve done the calculations right. The latter number can change as our knowledge of the event increases.

  1. Taye says:

    The difference between subjective and objective probability is elegantly stated. I think I got it right. Thanks!

  2. shahzad munir says:

    there no comment

  3. Sadaf says:

    The difference is stated the way it can be easily grasp by a beginner. Good work!

  4. Sajid says:

    example best describes the difference.thanks

  5. Aby Tellas says:

    Anand, Well explained. Clear Spic and span

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