prediction-markets on S Anand

Things I Learned - 17 May 2026

Sun, 17 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

This week, I learned:

I had GPT-5.5 and Opus 4.7 analyze a few of my conversations and learnt that I need to ask myself: “What must they take away? What must you take away?” in my conversations. That lets me speak with intention rather than instict. (Instinct has its place. I happen to over-use it.)
Turns out there are several well-established taxonomies. It makes sense to align with these. Linked data is powerful and AI makes linkage easy.
- General Knowledge: Wikidata, DBpedia, YAGO.
- People: VIAF, ISNI, ORCID, LC Name Authority, GND.
- Places: GeoNames, Getty TGN, ISO 3166.
- Organizations: LEI, ROR, Wikidata.
- Books/Media: Open Library, WorldCat, MusicBrainz, IMDB.
- Chemicals/Biology: PubChem, ChEBI, GBIF, ITIS.
- Legal/Units/Math/Events: EuroVoc, QUDT, OEIS, PeriodO, etc.
BitWarden supports a bw CLI that seems handy for quick CLI access to passwords. It’s a step towards me moving away from saving passwords unencrypted on my local file system.
Singapore has banned prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. Pity. I was hoping to use AI coding agents to play them. Yahoo
flipbook.page is a fascinating generative UI exploration. It’s a visual browser, i.e. it generates an image based on text, you click anywhere, it generates an image interpreting based on where you clicked, and so on. A very different style of exploration!
Vercel’s deepsec uses Codex / Claude to search for vulnerabilities, but “scans can cost thousands or even tens-of-thousands of dollars for large codebases”.
When I charge my Lenovo Thinkpad (P1 Gen 7) with the 170W charger that came with the laptop, it delivers ~60W of power to the battery, charging the laptop in about an hour. A 65W laptop delivers half the power and takes twice as long.

Google markets

Thu, 22 Sep 2005 12:00:00 +0000

Google markets. It’s not a new Google service. Just Google “putting the wisdom of crowds to work” by using online markets.

Yahoo Buzz Game

Mon, 18 Apr 2005 12:00:00 +0000

Yahoo’s Buzz Game tracks various technology markets, and lets people bet on which one will win. So, for instance, C leads language, Livejournal leads blogs, Flickr leads tags, and Bittorrent leads P2P.

Exchanges using Wisdom of Crowds

Fri, 13 Aug 2004 12:00:00 +0000

Alternate exchanges: Hollywood Stock Exchange, Innovation futures, Blogshares. These exchanges are supposed to be remarkably accurate in predictions.

Ideosphere

Wed, 04 Jul 2001 12:00:00 +0000

Among all concepts I have encountered on the Web, this one is the most intruiging. Ideosphere has created a futures market for ideas. You put a claim on this website, and people can buy/sell coupons based on these ideas. When the claim becomes true/false, these coupons increase/decrease in value. Of course, no real money is involved – it’s just a score. Very interesting, nevertheless, to get a feel of what people think. (There’s a similar exchange for Bollywood.)